Dulfite said:

I disagree, but that's okay. In 15-30 years China is going to be dealing with a situation that makes our baby boomer social security problem look like a joke. That need as much money from us as possible, as quickly as possible, while they try to sort out their own mess. You can think what you'd like, that's fine, and you may be right in the end, but I think Trump will break China on tariffs just like he did Canada and Mexico.

In 15-30 years during that time frame, China will become a technological leader and powerhouse so by then they'll be able to "cash in" on their invested human capital so to speak. I don't imagine social security to be much of problem when the world will likely subsidize their technology ... 

Bandorr said:

China will easily destroy us in a trade war.  We are losing on three fronts.

First: China isn't paying the cost of the Tarrifs the US is. So the US is spending a ton of money paying the US to import items. A net loss for companies.

Second: The farmers are taking a massive beating which is why Trump keeps passing these bills to give them money. Which is why he just gave 16 billion to them. A massive net loss.

Three: The tax reform bill blew a MASSIVE hole in our budget and our deficit.  Meaning we have a lot less money.  Specially considering we have to keep bailing out the farmers.

That is why trump is desperately resorting to other things that aren't part of the trade war. Like banning Huawei.. then suggesting it would be part of the bartering process to unban it.

Which is awkward because how can you go from "Huawei is something that's very dangerous" to "It's possible that Huawei even would be included in some kind of trade dea" unless you are hopelessly, desperately, pathetically losing a massive trade war.

Stopping China's rise isn't necessarily a bad idea since there's nearly bipartisan support for it! It's probably a good idea to restrict Huawei since they are a leader in 5G technology ... 

Trump's goal in a trade war is to stop the progression of China's self-sufficiency in technology due to these "five-year plans" that the Chinese keep producing. What are Americans going to do if their highest end of the industries from silicon valley deindustrializes because their goods or services couldn't compete with the Chinese equivalents ? 

You have to look beyond Trump's trade war because globalization also means putting the American economy at risk ...

Last edited by fatslob-:O - on 24 May 2019