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I think that the Xbox One could have been successful at 500$ back in 2013 - but it would have needed to perform better than the PS4 (without going too far, a faster CPU + GPU combo, and memory fast enough to feed them).

Let's say it would have come out with enough CPU power to run games that are 1080p 30FPS on the PS4 close to locked 60, with similar details.

All in all, I think that if the games are back-and-forward compatible they should price the new consoles like the "PRO" consoles, maybe even a little more, I'd rather spend more on something I want, than less on something I'm lukewarm about.