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dallas said:
There is no set formula for figuring out which console will be the most popular. Secondly, price cuts will attract new people, but they will also attract the people that have been wanting to get a PS3 or whatever for a while, but haven't because the cost was prohibitive.

The only "formula" that I would reccomend using, would be the entirely subjective Value/Cost ratio. The PS3/360/wii is worth more to some than others given their income, spending power, like or dislike of the console system, etc and the console companies are always trying to make that ratio go higher, hence we have online gaming and a lot more things going on than 10 years ago. That is also why you will frequently see price-cuts for mass-produced products, so that companies can gain market share, and hopefully choke off the competition.

I didn't provide a formula; I was just debunking the claim that price cuts will boost consoles sales. It is not necessarily true, and games would be much more important. Therefore, if a company was trying to gain market share, personally I would try to get better games than to make them cheaper. Regarding your value/cost ratio, basically you are describing life. That would be true about anything. So it doesn't help that much.

Edit: Regarding your response, the number suggest otherwise. Why didnt a drop of 15%, 16% help japanese sales, or a drop of 10% or 17% help us numbers? I do agree with you that if all else is equal, a price cut will make it more accessible and more units will be sold. I was just pointing out that it seems other factors are more important that price deductions.