RolStoppable said:
CosmicSex said:
Nintendo is on record saying that it wants Switch to last till 2021 or 2022 at the latest. If they support the Switch beyond that with a Pro model, then we can go higher than 65 million. But outside of that you need to be asking yourself how much can they sell in the next 2 years.
My prediction makes more sense because I am listening to them and not to my imaginary beliefs.
I think Nintendo's plan is to release a new system that will be both back compatible and competitive to some of the larger studios like Rockstar so that the next GTA will launch on it with Xbox and Playstation.
The strategy is meant to keep their base and attract more mainline gamers who like COD and what not.
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There's no credible source for your claim. Since your entire argument is based on that false claim, there's no need for me to address anything else you said.
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Thank you for the data. Let's analyze it.
The total sales of generation 4 and generation 7 and extremely different, so lets put the numbers in relative terms, in terms of market share. How strong was the SNES's market share transistioning into generation 5 compared to the Wii's market share transitioning into generation 8?
In all cases sales are listed in millions, and the denominator in Market Share comes from total console sales in each region.
Japan
Gen 4 = 26.8m = 17.2 (SNES) + 3.6 (Gen) + 6 (TG16)
Gen 7 = 24.9m = 12.7 (Wii) + 10.5 (PS3) + 1.7 (X360)
| annual sales |
1 Year before successor |
Market Share |
Year of Successor |
Market Share |
| SNES |
1.78 |
6.64% |
0.62 |
2.31% |
| Wii |
0.86 |
3.45% |
0.26 |
1.04% |
North America
Gen 4 = 42.9m = 23.4 (SNES) + 17 (Gen) + 2.5 (TG16)
Gen 7 = 126.3m = 47.8 (Wii) + 29.4 (PS3) + 49.1 (X360)
| annual sales |
1 Year before successor |
Market Share |
Year of Successor |
Market Share |
| SNES |
2.86 |
6.67% |
1.9 |
4.43% |
| Wii |
4.53 |
3.59% |
2.05 |
1.62% |
Other
Gen 4 = 19.6m = 8.6 (SNES) + 9 (Gen) + 2 (TG16)
Gen 7 = 121.4m = 39.4 (Wii) + 47 (PS3) + 35 (X360)
| annual sales |
1 Year before successor |
Market Share |
Year of Successor |
Market Share |
| SNES |
1.14 |
5.82% |
0.78 |
3.98% |
| Wii |
4.45 |
3.67% |
1.68 |
1.38% |
As you can see the SNES was performing much better than the Wii in terms of market share, both in the year before the next gen release and the year of the next gen release. Nintendo was coming from an extremely strong position going into generation 5. That translated into strong sales the first year or so for the N64. Those sales withered away after the first year especially outside of North America.
In generation 5, Nintendo went from a perfect record of always winning to getting outsold more than 3 to 1 by the PS1. That is why I lump the N64 in with the Gamecube and Wii U. It was a total disaster compared to their previous track record.
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That argument is the equivalent of attach rates on consoles where the attempt is to convince people that 100k copies sold on an installed base of 1m is better than 500k copies sold on an installed base of 10m.
The ongoing problem in this discussion has been that you insist that the Nintendo 64 is as much of a failure as the Wii U on all accounts, but that's extremely reaching and requires several leaps of logic. You are unable to provide more than a binary analysis where everything can only be either success or failure.
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Attach rates and market share are two different things. When I use market share I am doing the equivalent of adjusting for inflation. You need a way to compare two quantities that happen in very different points of time.
Now actually look at the results. In Japan the total sales are similar but the market share still highly favors the SNES over the Wii. In fact SNES outdoes Wii by about double regardless if the total sales are similar or different.
There is no leap in logic here. In this market analysis it is easy to see the SNES was stronger. In fact, the SNES had a majority of the total market in generation 4, while the Wii did not have a majority. On top of that the SNES was consistently strong throughout it's life while Wii sales plummeted after a few years. What you are calling "leaps in logic" would be considered commonly accepted facts in any other discussion.
The SNES was the more popular console in relative terms, especially at the end of its life. That is why the N64 did well the first year. That success didn't last though.
Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 10 April 2019
