vivster said: Define "considerably". I can certainly see a 20% decline but is that a lot? |
I think even 50% decline is realistic for any dedicated home console in Japan.
Pinkie_pie said: Does it matter if it sell less in japan if it outsells the ps4 lifetime worldwide? |
Japan sales make a difference. For example the Switch sold more WW in Feb despite having only slightly more sales in the US with notably less sales in EU than PS4. This is because Japanese sales number made up the difference and put Switch ahead for the month.
Pinkie_pie said:
North America and Europe are buying the switch instead because they can play all the big 3rd party games on it? Switch will not be getting any 3rd party games that are made for the ps5. it might be the end of switch when ps5 launches |
At that point they will just have more 3rd party executives geared toward what the Switch is. It might not have many multiplats, but the install base is too big for 3rd parties to ignore at this point, especially in Japan. Look at how long they kept the VITA alive for example.
And when the inevitable Switch 2 comes in say, 2022...your argument becomes moot anyway.
twintail said:
Lets start at the beginning. How do you know most smaller devs cant be bothered with the censorship angle from Sony? How is the censorship making the lives of these devs any different? Are these games responsible for moving PS4 or switch hardware? What makes you think that gamers are buying hardware based solely on the form factor? This may be true for mobile devices since that has been the trend for the last 2 gens, but you are saying that software plays no key convincing Japanese consumers to buy a console? Is the switch going to continue getting every multiplatform game once the PS5 is out, let alone every PS4 game while it is still Sony's main console?
I feel like a similar argument could have been made prior to the PS4s launch, and here we are now with the PS4 seller faster than the PS3 was at the same point in its Japanese life cycle. I feel like PS5 will not change that much: as long as it is offering software not possible on the Switch it will have a dedicated enough audience to go with it.
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Well there are other factors as well. Nintendo is the only hardware maker truly catering to Japanese tastes. Sony is now based in NA, the PS4 already treated them like second class citizens with a later release in their region, and all of there first party efforts are geared towards the west. All of this is on top of what I have already mentioned.
I am not saying it will not sell, but with most Japanese devs making either Switch versions of their games or Switch exclusives in the future, the PS5 will look a lot less appealing to the average Japanese gamer. It is for that reason, a 50% in HW sales seems like a reasonable estimate for the PS5 in Japan.