Ideal month of launch for a console?

[Robert_Downey_Jr.]

RolStoppable said:

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

but even the less successful consoles like the One have massive preorders at launch.  If you have a successful predecessor you're guaranteed a million+ preorders at this point.  Also I don't think Nintendo would launch in Spring with a more successful predecessor and given the hybrid nature of Switch it wasn't exactly a normal successor to 3DS so that's a little different than cutting the legs of PS4 with a launch trailer.  Even rumors have hurt console sales and mindshare is important even if late adopter and early adopters tend to be different.

The Xbox One tanked after launch. If it hadn't had the benefit of holiday sales, things would have looked even worse than they actually did.

The 3DS launched in February/March 2011 and succeeded the DS. I repeat that Switch was originally planned to launch in November 2016 and I add that the 3DS too was supposed to launch during the holiday season (2010). The spring launches of those two consoles weren't the desired launch windows by Nintendo. Those two consoles also demonstrate the risk that is involved. The 3DS was hurt badly by its launch timing and received an early price cut; Switch was fine.

The bottom line remains that the choice of launch month for a resounding success is virtually irrelevant, but everything else is better off with a November launch. If, say, Sony is convinced that the PS5 will be an immediate success, then they can go ahead and target a month other than November. In their case September would be ideal, because that's the month of FIFA. Pre-September wouldn't be a good idea, because the AAA industry is very much focused on the holiday quarter.

Do you actually think they could launch in September or October and NOT have big holiday sales?  Like that bump is gonna be there regardless