Ideal month of launch for a console?

[Robert_Downey_Jr.]

RolStoppable said:

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

But I'm saying the only reason Nintendo could launch in Spring because they didn't have to worry about hurting the predecessor's holiday.  You can't announce a console in January and launch in March.  So you'd have to announce before the holiday which would result in a MUCH lower holiday for the previous console because most would simply wait for the next thing.  Also you don't need BF sales when it's still the new thing.  You're still lumping together the two major initial selling periods when you launch in November.  I think October is better than November because holiday sales will be as high as they would be for a November launch but now you've manufactured more and gotten a couple million install base to the hardcore out of the way.

You know that Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS, and the 3DS was far from dead in 2016. Nintendo introduced Switch with a trailer in November 2016 and it didn't hurt the 3DS's holiday sales, because early adopters and late adopters are two different demographics.

The other point is that a console manufacturer would have to be 100% certain of success to pick a month before November, but they are too afraid of the consequences in case of a less than ideal start. You are correct that a November launch wastes a portion of sales when a console is a resounding success, but said portion is commonly exaggerated. There's a reason why November became the prefered launch month of all console manufacturers. If things go better than expected, sales weren't maximised; if things go worse, you minimize the potential of negative news about a slow start. The sales that were missed out on can be quickly and effortlessly made back, but a negative reputation isn't as easy to shake off.

but even the less successful consoles like the One have massive preorders at launch.  If you have a successful predecessor you're guaranteed a million+ preorders at this point.  Also I don't think Nintendo would launch in Spring with a more successful predecessor and given the hybrid nature of Switch it wasn't exactly a normal successor to 3DS so that's a little different than cutting the legs of PS4 with a launch trailer.  Even rumors have hurt console sales and mindshare is important even if late adopter and early adopters tend to be different.