| RolStoppable said: Console manufacturers have targeted November for launch, because the historical sales data supported that that is the safest month to choose. A November launch results in month 1 and 2 of a console being roughly equal, so a good start is pretty much guaranteed. Any other month of the year as launch month results in a significantly lower month 2. November became the go-to month because the resulting sales created the most beneficial scenario; easy to point at the sales of the first two months to show that there's an installed base worth developing for. October would be the second-best month to launch, but holiday shopping doesn't start until the latter half of November and a console being new also means that it's unreasonable to offer Black Friday deals, because you'd piss off the people who bought only one month earlier. With October as launch month you get a good October, a slumping November because of the first 2-3 weeks of that month, then a December surge. If a console is properly conceived (price, launch games, post-launch release schedule etc.), then the month of launch is largely irrelevant because the installed base grows at a healthy pace in any case. But since there's no console manufacturer who can predict success or lack thereof with high accuracy, November is the month that gets targeted. Switch was originally supposed to launch in November 2016, but the launch got postponed because the release schedule would have had glaring holes otherwise. Lastly, the sales numbers of a predecessor are irrelevant. Switch would have sold well regardless of what Wii U and 3DS still sold, just like the PS2 wasn't hindered by the PS1. Early adopters and late adopters of consoles are two very different demographics, so good late-life sales of one console cannot be the reason for a new console struggling. |
But I'm saying the only reason Nintendo could launch in Spring because they didn't have to worry about hurting the predecessor's holiday. You can't announce a console in January and launch in March. So you'd have to announce before the holiday which would result in a MUCH lower holiday for the previous console because most would simply wait for the next thing. Also you don't need BF sales when it's still the new thing. You're still lumping together the two major initial selling periods when you launch in November. I think October is better than November because holiday sales will be as high as they would be for a November launch but now you've manufactured more and gotten a couple million install base to the hardcore out of the way.
I am Iron Man
