| Farsala said: I am part of the pessimistic crew, as I usually am for most consoles. And I think 115m is a decent place for it to stop, VGchartz users have convinced me that 120m is also very possible. So really anything below 115m-120m is pretty ridiculous. |
Pessimism is fine, as long as its logical. I mean, I highly doubt the 40% drops I put up will happen, at least not until 2021, but I guess anything is possible. But, one of the comments I read said that 130M was impossible, with 110M being more realistic, but even that was unlikely. So, the guy, in all of his wisdom, thought it would only hit 105M-108M. Which would mean selling 10M for 2019 and part of 2020 before the PS5 came out and then sales just take a nose dive. And not even 50% YOY nosedives, but like 80%.
| Nate4Drake said: My forecast is always the same : 130M+ Quote me at the end of PS4 life cycle. I'm saving this page. |
I can definitely see that happening, especially if the PS5 doesn't hit until 2020. This year, if the PS4 drops 15%-20%, it will end at 108.4M-109.2M. If the PS5 comes in 2020, I could see that being only a 15%-20% drop, too, which would put the PS4 at 119.7-122M. I don't see why a $199 PS4 couldn't sell another ~8M-10M after the PS5's launch, if the less popular PS3 was able to achieve ~7.5M after the PS4 launched.
