"No, I highly doubt it - that soft spring quarter has hamstrung them somewhat. They needed to be coming in at around 3 million units or more for each quarter outside of Q3; 1.88 million in Q1 just wasn't good enough. Labo clearly hasn't taken off the way they hoped; the three packs combined have probably sold less than Xenoblade Chronicles. Selling less than a middle-tier JRPG is not what you want for a new game that's meant to bring your hardware to a wider audience.
My guess is they're going to land in the 18-18.5 million range, which would still be strong. As others have noted, PS4 did about 17.7 million in the second fiscal year, so around the 18 million mark would be good for Switch. Nintendo are at ~5.1 million now; I can see 9.5 million for the holiday quarter and 3.5 million in Q4, for a little over 18 million for the financial year."
That was my post on November 2nd - it seems now 18 million is likely the absolute best case scenario. Nintendo must be expecting this Q4 to come in slightly above Q1 of the financial year (1.88m), when Labo launched and which lacked any other significant sales drivers. It still seems conservative, especially given shipments of ~2.5 million would be down year over year.
I'd really hope they have a more consistent line-up planned for the next financial year. It's far from clear when their games are coming, but if they can get one of Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing and Pokemon out in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and actually have something significant launch in their Q4 for the coming financial year, they'll do better. A price cut or revision (or both) is also likely.
