Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

[AJNShelton]

Shadow1980 said:

Kerotan said:

Hey shadow i edited your post because it was so long but just want to say I'd wish you'd stop underestimating the ps4. It's been a trend with you all this gen. I respect you and love your work but it's very frustrating reading your posts over the years because i know you are genuine and not trolling. Hopefully those days are past and you won't underestimate the ps4 or the ps5 no more. I'm sure you seen the effect of the ps4 temporary promo to $230 in South Korea and Taiwan. I think that just shows how much the ps4 would sell over the next few years if Sony cut it WW to $199 permanently ps5 on the market or not.

I will admit that back in 2017 I was pretty bearish on the PS4. Not so much anymore. I was expecting larger declines in 2018 than what actually happened. I'm now assuming a final lifetime tally of about 120M for the PS4, with an approximate regional breakdown as follows:

NA: 40M (37M U.S.)
EU: 50M
JP: 10M
RoW: 20M

I think the PS4 ought to sell 13.5M to 15M this year, maybe 7-8M in 2020 (assuming a Nov. 2020 launch for the PS5), and sales dropping by half each year after that out to 2023. So, about 27-30M from 2019 to the end of the PS4's life, added to the now 91.6M lifetime tally.

I don't think PS4 sales will reach 10 million in Japan, it barely sells anymore (less than 20k per week)