I wholeheartedly disagree with that. I think if they price it right ($250 early in the year and then a full holiday at $200) they have a HUGE chance of being close to flat YoY.
They already sold a huge amount of consoles. I doubt people at sony are concerned about selling less consoles than the previous year, that was gonna happen regardless. They obviously care way more about making profit and will have small random price cuts through the year until holidays.