Global Hardware 15 December 2018

[DonFerrari]

drinkandswim said:

DonFerrari said:

To not go on lenght with your reach argument (as before this gen most consoles have launched in different years) PS2+Xbox close to PS3+X360 close to PS4+X1, which show that if one of they dropped from the market the other would greatly gain.

Do you think PS4 would have sold 35M this year if Switch didn't launch? Or Perhaps Xbox would sell 25M? Or what split would PS4 and X1 receive from Switch not launching?

And sorry to open your eyes, but forum aren't a representation of reality.

I mean if you are saying the markets don't completely overlap I agree. I wouldn't expect to see a complete displacement of sales. 3DS actually has seen the biggest hit from Nintendo Switch, but it was necessary to be replaced on the market as it is at the end of its life cycle. PS4 probably saw about a 10% hit in hardware sales from Switch, 10% to software, and 10% to accessories. Probably slightly higher for Microsoft. Even though their sales are flat YOY they would have higher numbers. Maybe 15-20% higher. I expect that percentage to increase this year, but it depends on what kind of price drops there are. Switch didn't even have a great 2018 from a Software release standpoint minus the Holiday season. And even that was light they just had some really big sellers.

I don't really think PS4 would have hit 22M (2017) and 20M (2018) without Switch in the market. But ok for the sake of argument I'll agree.

If your competitor can take 10% of your market when they perform great then it is more of a substitute/indirect competitor than a direct competitor. Which is one of the points when discussing monopolies, even if it seems like you are a monopoly (as 3DS almost became due to PSVita being very bad on the market, and GameBoy had) if you don't have a good product people will go to substitutes, like smartphones/consoles on the case of 3DS or consoles for Gameboy. Meaning that other products may take away some of your sale, but that doesn't mean they are directly competing.

If Wii didn't exist some of the 100M would go to PS360, but not most, because Wii was in a blue ocean. Now if Nintendo by not making Wii decided to make exclusives to either of the PS360 them that would move much more buyers due to a good amount that would only buy HW that play Nintendo games.