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DélioPT said:
DonFerrari said:

Begin of gen enthusiast and late life buyers aren't the same...

No need to rush.

Gens start usually when they see a decline in SW sold. And PS4 just crossed the peak of HW sales (SW seems like haven't yet), so Holiday 2020 is the most likely year for release (before I was more for 2021).

It's about the momentum and the competition.

The momentum for PS4, and Sony, obviously, is still very high and could very well be channeled to PS5. With the benefit of better fending off the competition.
This generation was pretty much won from day one (XB1 was a huge mistep by MS and Nintendo had… Wii U), but the same might not happen next time.

Better safe than sorry, i say.

Not that i see Sony being in some sort of trouble even if they are last to the market, but Sony knows what happens when they take things for granted. 
Not to mention MS will have learned it's lesson.

Momentum from PS2 didn't carry to PS3, and PS3 already slowing down didn't impact PS4.

So far all gens have been resets, momentum needs to be made into the gen not carried over. That is why I'm saying the demography of late and early gen are different.

Yes, I doubt either MS or Sony will give the other more than 6 months window alone in the market. But PS4 announced and release with more than 6 months window. So if similar happens with either of the companies, the other will basically have 1 year from announcement of the competition to launch their console.

Reacting is a little different then intentionally cut down the legs on the gen while they are still selling good on HW and increasing in SW. They certainly already have the specs and probably even prototypes of next gen. But they will time the launch to keep revenue.

Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

I didnt mention other markets because sales were poor/mediocre outside of US/UK and we dont have annual UK sales before 2011.

Black Friday discounts & bundles is a valid point but without the S model & Kinect their affect would have been much weaker and we would have continued to see further declines to sales that began in 2009.

More HDD however isnt very relevant because they had increased storage space on the original model every year.

We disagree on why it sold so well late in life. Obviously both S model (with price cuts) and kinect had an impact but I think the price cuts (and games of course) would have kept it from being down YoY regardless.

More HDD definitely was a price cut though. PRO to Elite to S

Xbox Pro $399 60 gb (2008) to XBOX Elite $399 250gb (2009) and then XBOX S $299 250gb (2010) with the option of $399 320gb special editions.

First was a 190gb upgrade and then a full $100 price cut with the launch of the XBOX S.

Sales curve of all consoles before show that after peak the price cuts and small revisions wouldn't cause another peak much later in life, it needed to be another factor. And considering how much kinect sold, it was the reason X360 rebounded and was able to keep close to PS3 (which I don't remember having 2 peaks).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."