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colafitte on 08 January 2019
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:
I'm expecting the second important price cut for PS4 this year, maybe 200$ for base PS4 and 300$ for PS4 Pro. So, because i don't expect Nintendo doing any price cut for Switch in 2019 (only if the sales are not as good as expected), i expect 2019 to be really close between PS4 and Switch again. PS4 should at least be able to reach 17M with that price cut, and if TLOU Part II launches in 2019...., it's almost a guarantee.

Veeery much doubt that.

1. I don't think the PS4 will drop that much in price outside of promotions. 50$ each is way more probable

2. PS4 doesn't have the same lineup of great games and recognizable IP this time around. It's not bad, but can't compete with last year's MHW, GoW or Spiderman, to just name a few.

3. Switch not doing any pricecut while in their third year would be pretty much unheard of. I don't expect very much to be fair (299$ with a game included, 269$ becoming a new base model plus a 299$ Model with bigger internal memory (64GiB or 128GiB, depending on how fast Flash Memory gets cheaper) but no game or just a Free to Start with maybe some store credits and/or unique items/skins preinstalled. That's not very much of a pricedrop, but hey, it's something.

4. 17M are a lot. PS4 made 18M this year, and that's 2M less despite it's stellar game releases this year. I said I expected 13-15M in another thread and I'm willing to extend that maybe to 16M, but that's really maximum, even with TLOU II. Market really starts to get saturated, I'm sure sales will drop off quite a bit in the following months compared to last year.

1. 17M is based on that price cut. If PS4 does not receive that then it will be around 16M.

2. First half of the year already has KH3, RE2, DMC5, Anthem, The Division 2, Rage,... And TLOU 2 is bigger than GOW and Spiderman, so yes, if it launches in 2019, between that, days gone, dreams and maybe death stranding 2019 could be even better lineup wise.

3. Fair point. I just think Nintendo is going to prefer less sales but a higher profit like all the companies are doing right now. If switch repeats or surpass 2018 sales it shouldn't need a price cut.

4. PS4 is perfectly capable of doing 16-17M next year. It's a Playstation console and there is no ps5 or Xbox next yet in the horizon. It still going to sell a LOT. People should not underestimate what PS4 is capable to do as time has proved.