RolStoppable said:
Now that's an overreaction. If you are curious why the tone is getting harsher, it's because you don't respect the facts to a sufficient degree. And yes, expecting Switch to do only marginally better than 3DS when Switch is growing the sales gap between itself and the 3DS... that is lowballing, because it basically necessitates the expectation that Switch will decline the same or even worse than the 3DS after year 3. After the first full fiscal year, Switch led by ~0.5m. After the second full fiscal year, the 3DS was at 31.09m, so Switch's lead will be 3-6m depending on how it plays out. The 3DS shipped 12.24m in its third full fiscal year, so Switch having a lead of 10m+ is realistic by that point. At that point your lifetime prediction requires that Switch drops to 8.73m, 6.79m, 7.27m and 6.40m in the following four fiscal years in order to work, because you expect Switch to sell only 10-15m more than the 3DS lifetime. My recommendation is that we simply wait until the end of the month and see what Switch's shipments are for Q3 of the fiscal year, and then reflect on whose arguments were better. I don't believe that you are one of those lost causes, rather you are someone who is reluctant to accept something before it has happened. In this specific case you are of the opinion that 18m for the fiscal year is an optimistic high end expectation while others, including me, are saying that it is on the low end. Personally, I expect between 18-19m with the information we have currently available; Q3 should bring the tally to ~15.5m and another ~3m in Q4 will make it ~18.5m. |
Fair enough, but really, i won't discuss any more because i have nothing more to say either.
I've been very clear since the beginining:
Switch 16-16'5M sold in 2018, 29-29'5M sold lifetime at the end of 2018, 9-10M shipped Q3, 32-33M Shipped lifetime by the end of 2018, around 35-36M Shipped by March 2019 for FY18, around 85-90M Lifetime at least in 2023.
If it's 10'5-11'0M shipped in Q3, totally possible. If it is 18'5M shipped by FY18??, totally possible too; more than 19M shipped?? i seriously doubt it and i find it not possible; 20M or more shipped?? i find it impossible.
How the split is going to be among regions?, i don't know and i don't care (that's why my region split earlier was fishy, because i did not think of that enough).
Now, just wait and see like you said, but i don't think my predictions are lowballing at all, i'm not Michael Pachter....And if i don't agree with people like you with how much Switch is going to sell lifetime, you won't convince me just by saying "Switch is special, first party, indie games" arguments. You and any other who do that just won't convince me only with that. I'm sorry but it is what it is, and please, you and others, don't take it personally, it's anything like that. Is just that i prefer to think that until more evidential data exists, Switch has yet to prove it can do Wii or DS levels of sales. So far it has not done it yet (and i using the word yet because i can accept it is possible).
If Switch ends selling more than i thought i will be satisfied, because i prefer each console to sell better, not worse. And if i'm wrong i will admit my mistakes, like i always do, something that is not very common in forums like this.
