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MTZehvor on 01 January 2019
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Snoopy said:
MTZehvor said:

Patriots beat the Jets by 35. Chiefs beat the Raiders by 32. Texans beat the Jags by 17. Rams beat the 49ers by 16 while resting many of their starters. Chargers beat the Broncos by 14. Out of the eight divisional games on Sunday where one team had a better record than their opponent by at least 3 games coming in, the team with the better record went 7-1, and won by at least 14 points in 5 of those games. The single loss was the Saints, who sat their starters the entire game.

The notion that division rivals play each other close regardless of record is just a myth. Close games inevitably happen in the NFL because the disparity in skill is relatively small compared to something like college football. Having a close game against an inferior opponent is nothing to be ashamed of; it happens. However, it's not really something to brag about either.

Miami beaten the Patriots, Cleveland has beaten Ravens, Redksins beaten Cowboys, Jacksonville beat the Colts, Tampa beat the Saints and more where weak teams beat the rival teams that outmatched them. It isn't a myth because these teams purposely draft players to match their rivals.

The Jags, Lions, Titans, and Steelers also beat the Patriots. The Panthers and Titans beat the Cowboys. The Bills pulled off the largest upset in the history of the league by point spread this season on the road in Minnesota. Upsets happen in the league.

The point is that they don't happen at any higher of a rate inside of the division than outside. As a Dallas fan this year, you should be aware of this; the Cowboys were 5-1 inside of their division this year, but just 5-5 outside of it. New England was 5-1 in the AFC East this season and 6-4 outside of it. The Rams were 6-0 inside their division and 7-3 outside of it. The Bears were 5-1 in the NFC North and 7-3 outside of it. Of the eight division winners this year, only one had a division record that was worse than their out of division record (New Orleans).

Besides, most of your examples are extremely cherry picked. Miami needed a last second lateral craze to win, which hardly suggests some kind of deep personnel knowledge. The Browns are by no means a bad team, and the Ravens were still starting Joe Flacco when Cleveland beat them. Washington beat Dallas when the latter was terrible and didn't yet have Amari Cooper. The Bucs beat the Saints in Week 1, which means next to nothing as both teams are still figuring out how good they are. The only one that stands is the Colts losing to the Jags, and even then, upsets happen. It's the NFL. Someone's going to lose to a team they're better than eventually.