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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:


Playstation 4 Pro-Nov 2016

Nintendo Switch-March 2017

Xbox One X-Nov 2017

Switch released right in between the mid-gen upgrades for PS4/XBO and they have had no noticeable effect on Switch and vice versa.

 

PS5/XB4 are likely coming in late 2020 which is ~3.5 years after the Switch launch and should be right around the time Switch gets it's own mid-gen upgrade (3DS, PS4, XBO all got 3-4 years after launch).

This should help negate any potential decline caused by the new PS/XB consoles.

But its not the same thing.

Those Mid gen upgrades you speak of are really just more of the same thing. Same old 3/4 year old consoles under the hood. Same library and family of games of which the NS also shared.

The media circus around a new console spearheading a new generation is a lot bigger than what was around upgraded consoles in an already 3+ year old generation. And there will be two of them. 

Between the PS4 and XB1 they had 7M+ (supply constrained) sales in their first 6 weeks. Those upgrades probably achieved less than 2M sales combined in their  first 6 weeks if aligned. Very different thing.

I dont think a mid gen upgrade can in anyway shape or form be compared to new hardware. Much less two of them. Like the whole industry/media will be talking about everything PS5/XB4 related for a big chunk of 2020. This is akin to games shifting their release date so they don't launch around games like RDR2 even if they are very different games. 

I agree that the new consoles will obviously be a much bigger deal than the mid-gen upgrades but this is just an example of history repeating itself.

About two years ago when Switch was revealed, it was a common argument that the new upgrades would keep mindshare away from Switch and on top of that big 3rd party titles releasing around its launch like Resident Evil 7, For Honor, Ghost Recon Wildlands, Mass Effect Andromeda & Injustice 2 were all skipping it and that would hurt it because Nintendo games alone cant make a system succeed.

 

These are the exact same arguments that are being used for why Switch sales will suffer once PS5/XB4 release.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.