November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

CGI-Quality said:

DonFerrari said: 

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

The 3DS is a different beast, though. Unlike the Switch, it had to fight its way out of a rut the first year. On top of that, it doesn't have the multifunctionality of the Switch and its sales curve, when aligned, is quite a ways behind it. 

Always let the data guide you through predictions. 

It's also worth taking a look at sales from a region to region basis.

3DS did amazing in Japan and good in the West while it's sort of the opposite for Switch.

The trajectory of Switch sales in the West will significantly cancel out any potential decline happening in Japan.