November NPD 2018 Thread

[DonFerrari]

zorg1000 said:

DonFerrari said:

1 - ok, but then we can go past the position of you wouldn't do flammatory posts right?

3 - Yes sure.. read more of his posts and it's pretty clear that he is meaning that predicting 80M is fine, but 65 a person needs to have an agenda (funny enough on a thread of PS4 achieving like 80-85M don't remember the specific number, but was this year, there were people predicting PS4 wouldn't cross 100M and no one was there attacking him or saying he had an agenda).

4 - "a blast from the past" and on a reply to me regarding it asking me to have humor and that he wasn't lambasting, just making joke... yes sure, no attack.

5 - Nope he didn't. 75 If Nintendo screw up. That isn't his real prediction. You can be sure that it is over 100M when only screwing up get it to 75 and optimistic going 155 (record) instead of everyone else getting out of gaming or any absurd occurence. So I'm pretty safe in saying he is more on the 120M+

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

1. I never anything of that sort, I said I wasn't attacking intrisic

3. Read more of his posts? You want me to look through his post history to see his predictions of other consoles in other threads? I'm not doing that, all I'm talking about is things happening in this specific discussion. And yes anyone who said PS4 wouldnt sell 100 million is crazy.

4. A blast from the past meaning it was a post from 2 years ago, you are reading way too much into that one.

5. Well yes Nintendo would have to start making big mistakes to only sell 75m, if they reach their fiscal year target they will be halfway there in just over 2 years. It would require a historical drop. And I have gotten in plenty of arguments with users for overly optimistic Nintendo predictions, most notably, JohnLucas & Kaizer who thought Wii U and 3DS would sell like 200 million.

1 - Ok

3 - No to see his behavior on defending Nintendo or attacking others who post something against it, and since he doesn't use the moderable terms he can stay float. Yes it is about imposible to see PS4 doing less than 100M, still no one attacked the person doing it.

4 - The person had already said he undershot and the reasons and where he done. So going there to dig the post and then ask for others to have humor is pretty clear he wanted to mock

5 - JohnLucas got someone replacing him to make a thread on Switch crossing 250M (but no one beats one MS executive that talked about 1B consoles this gen).

CGI-Quality said:

DonFerrari said: 

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

The 3DS is a different beast, though. Unlike the Switch, it had to fight its way out of a rut the first year. On top of that, it doesn't have the multifunctionality of the Switch and its sales curve, when aligned, is quite a ways behind it. 

Always let the data guide you through predictions. 

I agree it is a different beast and 80-110 is a very reasonable prediction bracket unless bonkers situation happens.