November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

1. My warning has nothing to do with this discussion, it was from a separate argument well before this debate started.

2. I'll give you that one

3. No, he said the 80m prediction is fine just questions how people come up with things like 65m or under 3DS.

4. No it wasnt. Intrinsic said his original prediction was 50m. This user showed that he originally said 35-40m. It wasnt to ridicule, it was to point out a false statement.

5. Because he gave a massive range of 75-155m, it will certainly fall somewhere between that massive gap.

1 - ok, but then we can go past the position of you wouldn't do flammatory posts right?

3 - Yes sure.. read more of his posts and it's pretty clear that he is meaning that predicting 80M is fine, but 65 a person needs to have an agenda (funny enough on a thread of PS4 achieving like 80-85M don't remember the specific number, but was this year, there were people predicting PS4 wouldn't cross 100M and no one was there attacking him or saying he had an agenda).

4 - "a blast from the past" and on a reply to me regarding it asking me to have humor and that he wasn't lambasting, just making joke... yes sure, no attack.

5 - Nope he didn't. 75 If Nintendo screw up. That isn't his real prediction. You can be sure that it is over 100M when only screwing up get it to 75 and optimistic going 155 (record) instead of everyone else getting out of gaming or any absurd occurence. So I'm pretty safe in saying he is more on the 120M+

CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

1. I never anything of that sort, I said I wasn't attacking intrisic

3. Read more of his posts? You want me to look through his post history to see his predictions of other consoles in other threads? I'm not doing that, all I'm talking about is things happening in this specific discussion. And yes anyone who said PS4 wouldnt sell 100 million is crazy.

4. A blast from the past meaning it was a post from 2 years ago, you are reading way too much into that one.

5. Well yes Nintendo would have to start making big mistakes to only sell 75m, if they reach their fiscal year target they will be halfway there in just over 2 years. It would require a historical drop. And I have gotten in plenty of arguments with users for overly optimistic Nintendo predictions, most notably, JohnLucas & Kaizer who thought Wii U and 3DS would sell like 200 million.