November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

PAOerfulone said:
Matching the 3DS is the absolute bare minimum of the Switch.

My Switch LTD predictions:

FY 2017: 2.74m
FY 2018: 15.05m (17.79m)
FY 2019: 19m (36.79m)
FY 2020: 21m (57.79m) - Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8, price cut/hardware revision to $250. Peak year.
FY 2021: 16m (73.79m) - MP4, Bayo 3, Pokemon Gen 4 remakes, growing 3rd party support.
FY 2022: 12m (85.79m) - hardware revision/price cut to $200.
FY 2023: 11m (96.79m) - Pokemon Gen 9 in November, NS2 Launch in March.
FY 2024: 8m (104.79m) - hardware revision/price cut to $150.
FY 2025: 4m (108.79m)
FY 2026: 1.21m (110m)
FY 2027: 0.30m (110.30m) - Discontinuation
FY 2028: 0.03m (110.33m) - Final year on the market.

Americas: ~44 million
Europe: ~27 million
Japan: ~27 million
Others: ~12 million

I agree with you that 3DS numbers are a worst case scenario but I also think your numbers are a best case scenario. I think it will land somewhere right in the middle.