November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

Intrinsic said:

zorg1000 said:

I'm sure Nintendo is going to refrain from price cuts as much as possible but it would still be very, very unlikely to not see a price cut or lower cost revision in its 3rd full fiscal year (April 2019-March 2020).

If I recall, @Shadow1980 explained recently that no console has ever gone past the third full fiscal year without a price cut with the majority happening in the 1st or 2nd meaning it would be unprecedented for Switch not to receive either a price cut to the current model or a cheaper revision next year.

So to go back to whether or not Switch will pass 3DS, its launch and first 4 full fiscal years were

3.61m

13.53m (price cut)

13.95m (revision)

12.24m (lower cost revision)

8.73m (premium revision)

Total-52.06m

 

3DS needed a price reduction/revision each year to maintain momentum or soften the decline.

Switch's first full fiscal year had a 1.5m lead over 3DS, if Switch hits its 2nd full year goal (could very well miss) it will extend that lead by 6 million. With a price cut/revision next year, any potential decline will be pretty minimal so it will once again extend the lead by a few million. At that point it would need a nearly 50% YoY decline (unprecedented) to not continue to extend the lead in the 4th full fiscal year.

Here are my rough estimates for Switch's launch and first 4 full fiscal years

2.74m

15.05m

17-20m

15-20m

12-15m

Total, 62-73m

 

By the end of the 4th full fiscal Switch should have an accumulated lead over 3DS by 10-20 million which will be very hard for 3DS to bounce back from.

Yes I am aware that hardware always sees some sort of price revision within the first 3 years. But nintendo really seems to be against price drops. Hell it took 3 years before it dropped the price of the Wii by $50. They would sooner bundle the system with a game than cut the price, this is just going off how nintendo has always been.

The 3DS was an exception because that needed a price drop to spur sales as it was selling way below expectations. Not the case with the NS. I don't know, I just believe we live in a very different world today than we did at the time a lot f people are drawing their conclusions from. Now revenue generated from an existing user base seems to have taken priority over the raw size of a user base. Even nintendo is now doing the whole online service thing too.

The way I see it, we will see bundles instead of price drops or revisions offering "more power and/or larger batteries/ storage at the same price point" before we start seeing $199 NS in the wild.  Unless sales start to drop. And before any of this happens nintendo will also want to release a number of their big IPs at this current price point to see how much of an effect that will have on sales.

I agree with your estimates though... but I dont believe it will have more than one 20M selling year. Especially when you consider that its best shot at having a 20M selling year at probably a reduced price is on or before a year when 2 new consoles would be released. Thats a lot of media attention taken away from the NS.  

The thing I don't understand is that you agree with those estimates I gave yet still think it will fall behind 3DS at some point, just exactly when will that be?

Those estimates I gave put it at 62-73 million, let's split it down the middle and say 67.5 million for convenience sake, that's a 15 million lead.

That's roughly 10 million away from where 3DS will end up at so you think it will go from 12+ million in the 4th full fiscal year to under 10 million in years 5 and beyond? A time period in which 3DS will sell ~25 million.

I'm sorry but the math just doesnt add up to me.