November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

Intrinsic said:

zorg1000 said:

The point isn't that 3DS costs less than Switch, its that it had both a price cut and revision in the first two full fiscal years and those were its peak years, neither of those things have happened for Switch yet which gives it greater potential for growth in fiscal years 3 & 4 compared to 3DS (years when it began to decline).

PS4 also needed a price cut and revision to have its peak year. 20m shipped in the fiscal year it received a price cut, Slim model & Pro model.

Ok. I get that.

My point though is that this price drop thing is not something that necessarily applies to the NS. 

Yes the PS4 needed a price drop before it saw its peak year, but prior to that it retailed for $350 and up and had years at those prices that were also really good. 

And fact of the matter is that the NS is selling really well. It may not be doing 20M @$299 numbers right now but its selling extremely well. Now what makes anyone think that nintendo is not content with it selling at its current rate and hence not be to eager to drop prices anytime soon as long as it maintains a 16M - 17M yearly sales average. 

Sony has taken that stance by pretty much refusing to drop the price of the PS4 from $299. I mean imagine what a $199 PS4 would have done in 2018 if it sold at that price all year round. But now when they do drop the price to $199 permanently it willl have less of an impact then and only keep the sales curve flat or just slightly down as opposed t massively down. Nintendo could very well be adopting the same strategy. 

I'm sure Nintendo is going to refrain from price cuts as much as possible but it would still be very, very unlikely to not see a price cut or lower cost revision in its 3rd full fiscal year (April 2019-March 2020).

If I recall, @Shadow1980 explained recently that no console has ever gone past the third full fiscal year without a price cut with the majority happening in the 1st or 2nd meaning it would be unprecedented for Switch not to receive either a price cut to the current model or a cheaper revision next year.

So to go back to whether or not Switch will pass 3DS, its launch and first 4 full fiscal years were

3.61m

13.53m (price cut)

13.95m (revision)

12.24m (lower cost revision)

8.73m (premium revision)

Total-52.06m

 

3DS needed a price reduction/revision each year to maintain momentum or soften the decline.

Switch's first full fiscal year had a 1.5m lead over 3DS, if Switch hits its 2nd full year goal (could very well miss) it will extend that lead by 6 million. With a price cut/revision next year, any potential decline will be pretty minimal so it will once again extend the lead by a few million. At that point it would need a nearly 50% YoY decline (unprecedented) to not continue to extend the lead in the 4th full fiscal year.

Here are my rough estimates for Switch's launch and first 4 full fiscal years

2.74m

15.05m

17-20m

15-20m

12-15m

Total, 62-73m

 

By the end of the 4th full fiscal Switch should have an accumulated lead over 3DS by 10-20 million which will be very hard for 3DS to bounce back from.