Nintendo have always been conservative but as a platform holder they want a variety of content. As for japenese publishers being risk adverse, you should look at Koei Tecmo, who's most risky move was copying an open world trend badly years too late. They almost always stick to their guns and don't go outside their comfort zone. Konami is another that other than past Metal Gear games they stick to lower cost yearly releases like PES. Your argument does work with Square Enix & Capcom but not really with Koei Tecmo or Bandai Namco who make majority of their money on lower cost projects.