November NPD 2018 Thread

[DonFerrari]

xMetroid said:
Y'all expecting the Switch to barely best the 3DS and ending up at like 80 millions are in for a surprise.
The consumers weren't interested in the 3DS to begin with and it got a significant price cut in it's first year to start selling, but the Switch being already more expensive and without any cuts and barely any deals (best one was the MK8 bundle and it's BF only..) it's outpacing the 3DS.

Sure 2018 was kinda dry in system sellers, but i really think 2019 will be on another level. Nintendo didn't change their target for the FY and it would be really terrible to not reduce it if things were looking like so. It's way better to reduce your goal than meet the expectations then not reaching it by aiming too high.
Let's say it's at 30 million by the end of 2018. It would need 50 million in 4 years minimum to reach that 80 million. 2018 is clearly not it's peak, no revision yet, no system seller during the whole year. 2019 is looking so much bigger and better than this year and i think it really has a shot at selling through 20 + millions, sure thing if the new switch hardware rumours are true.

Don't see it having a Wii like peak but will easily have better legs. Once it gets cheaper, it will be a multiple console by household type of thing. 80 million would be the absolute worst case scenario.

So if you are saying that the fact Nintendo didn't change their forecast so far is a warranty that they will ship 20M this FY? ok. So what about all the projections they missed on WiiU even after doing several down revisions?

Will wait for this misterious 2-3M additional sales that we haven't seem where will come from.

LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Intrinsic said:

Then you lack simple readin comprehension because that is not what I am saying. 

And you need to t drop this Benji nonsense. If you wanna share his comments go right ahead. But leave the side remarks out f it and stop twisting what he says. Thts just bait.  

That's exactly what you were saying and you left the most important part of what makes the Switch is a more desirable product than the 3DS. 

Hint: The hardware itself. 

Nintendo 3DS received a massive price cut in the early life of the system and the glasses-free 3D gimmick was never had taken off like what they were expecting. They scrapped the 3D part in the next models. 

The switch is currently selling at the full price nearly 2 years on the market and software sales of switches are above 3ds software sales numbers by a huge margin. 

Try to comprehend the entire scope of 2 consoles first dude. 

Besides 3DS being still sold even when 2DS was offered (and I don't remember 2DS becoming the best selling form) you are saying that the creation of 2DS show 3DS wasn't a desirable HW. So if at any point we get a table only or HH only Switch version this shows the hybrid isn't desirable?

Shadow1980 said:

DonFerrari said:

Yes I remember that and I agree with you.

And if the reason Xbox 1 kept ahead of X360 was its launch sales, how can anyone arguee that the reveal is really the cause for the drop against X360 5 years after the fact (while it didn't prevent it to have great launch)?

The funny thing about launches is that they rarely say anything about how well a system will perform afterward. Last gen we saw all three consoles with relatively mediocre launches:

 

The earliest adopters will buy a system in droves regardless of reception because they're dedicated to the brand enough to want it as early as possible. The only limiting factor is supply. I imagine the 360 would have sold well over 1.5M units if it weren't for supply constraints. Hell, it wouldn't have surprised me if the PS3 sold well over a million units even despite its high launch price. I remember the stories about people lining up and camping out to get a PS3, and there not being enough systems to go around. It seems the 360, PS3, and Wii were all short on supply when they came out.

That much is true, even with so many people complaining about the price of PS3 the sold everything for some of their first months.

But let's skip the first 2M that bought X1 at launch window. We don't really see X1 that much lower than X360 at any point, it is more consistently a little worse that when accumulated put X1 below X360 long term than bad first year or two and then a spike in sales after some turn around in sales.