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JSG87 on 16 December 2018
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Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

 

Regarding your point about all these games selling over 10 million, a lot of the franchises are headed to their highest ever numbers. Based on that alone it's clear that there is the usual hardcore Nintendo Base there already but clearly a nee set if customers that have never bothered with Nintendo before. This increases the likelihood of 3Rd parties selling well on Switch which is happening I believe. I get what you've been saying about the games though. Once the ps5 & nextbox release it will be handed for Nintendo to garner the 3Rd party support it needs to keep to hit a high of at least 80 million consoles sold. What I do think though is that companies will make exclusive subsets of their already established franchises for Switch since the Hardware numbers will probably be approaching 50+ million once the next generation arrives.

Exclusives will have to drive the system along with Nintendos output.