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Miyamotoo on 16 December 2018
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Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

But you do realise that Switch is much appealing than 3DS was in any case? Thats why Switch is selling stronger than 3DS in same period despite difference that 3DS needed huge price cut only 6 months after launch to start selling better and point that already in same time period like Switch 3DS already had one one revision, Switch still has launch price and only one revision. Also how time is passing difference in sales will be only bigger compared to 3DS, 3DS for instance in its full second fiscal year after launch done 14m, Switch will in its full second fiscal year do around 5m more than 3DS (current 2018. FY), for third full fiscal year difference will be even bigger.

Talking about 3rd party support, Switch have more diverse lineup than 3DS, and Switch 3rd party support is increasing how time is passing. Also fact that you keep ignoring is that Switch in unfied Nintendo platform compared to 3DS, that means all Nintendo IPs (both handheld and home consoles) on single platform and full undivided support from Nintendo in any case, that includes exclusive 3rd party deals just for one platform.

 

What you failed to see is that Switch is not selling only to Nintendo gamers, plenty of PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch like secondary console, simple Switch is more than enough diverse to PS4/XB1 that people can easily buy despite they have PS4/XB1 in order to play Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Smash, Metroid, Animal Crossing...in full handheld mode or in home console mode, same like people that want to play games like Dark Souls, Diablo 3, Doom, Wolfenstein, RE4...in full handheld mode.

80m is bare minimum that Switch will do, Switch can easily reach and past Wii sales, because compared to Wii, Switch buy time will start selling like device per person (when price point go to $200 or below).