If it is flat/small decline at the end of the year I will agree with you but I highly doubt that will be the case.
This is very similar to PS4 2014 vs 2015.
You are absolutely right, one or another quarter (or even accumulated 3) flat decline may only show a transfer from sales among quarters due to lack of inventory, wait for pricecut, expectation for some specific game.
And sure there may be cases of a console flat or drop in second or third year to them peak very very high at 4 or 5 year, I just don't think it's likely and certainly would bring concern to the platform holder.
Saying that, Switch will probably end up with a healthy YOY growth at the end of the year.
Look , I get it that rick gets under your skin but while it's fine to critique his facts , telling him stuff like tone down the dislike does nothing toward engendering honest debate what gives us the moral authority to tell others how to act, unless a person breaks the rules then moderation does it's thing, that person has the rights to his opinions especially when he isn't directing it at you specifically and you reply to him.
Now I realise your a decent person and not intentionally bullying rick and he can exasperate people , but sometimes you have to step back and realise at the end of the day it's just opinions.
MY opinion is we all have a deep seated need to bring people to our way of thinking and because someone engages in what we see as negativity we have a tendency to react to that behavior not with optimism, by saying ok I disagree here's why, knowing full well that it may not change the othersides thinking now or in the future, the opposite can lead to feeling like we are not been heard so end up trying to change the person's behaviour after all our personality is ingrained into how we present and also whether they turnout right or wrong we often subconsciously form our facts to suit our opinion.
People in vgc tend to be very sensible against critics towards what they like. So they jump to defensive and become aggressive very fast.
Quickrick may be very negative against Switch (that is totally POV as I haven't seem he saying anything bad about the console, he just expect sales on different spectrum than most Nintendo fans) but he doesn't disrespect people here.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"