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colafitte on 22 November 2018
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MasonADC said:
colafitte said:

I don't consider Switch having more support than 3DS. Yes Switch has Splatoon, but 3DS had main Monster Hunter games plus some exclusives games from the DS era, and both shared Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Metroid, Fire Emblem.......

And please..., don't put Diablo III at the same level of "huge deal" as when it launched on PC or at same level of a 3rd party game like a Call of Duty, Battlefield, Asassassin's Creed, Far Cry, GTA, etc.... on PS4 or XBO, they're not remotely at the same level. And Bayonetta and Octopath are as niche as they can be, like Yakuza or Sunset Overdrive levels of 3rd party support niche were for PS4 and XBO....Those games don't represent the success of 3rd party games on PS4 and XBO. That comparison is so unfair.

The reason why I don't expect more than 80-85 million Switch console shipped, it's because I don't expect Switch reaching any year 20M+ shipments. The only year that it will be capable is next FY and even if they do, next Fiscal Years won't reach that level. And to reach 100M sales you have to reach those numbers more than one year.

Do you really see Switch lasting as a main Nintendo console more than 6 or 7 years?? Even If they make it in 6 years they need 16'6M on average and if it's in 7 they need 14'3M per year. If they ship around 36-38M in its first 2 years they need around 60-65M more in the next 4 or 5 years, thats 4 years more averaging around 16M or 7 years more averaging around 13M. If with a Mario 3D, 3D Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Pokemon game available and selling as good they are not able to reach 20M in a year, how do you expect to mantain an average as high as 16M per year for 4 more years?? No Nintendo console has been able to mantain that level of consistency so many years.

 

One question, why won't they be able to ship 20 mil next year? All signs point towards a stronger 2019 than 2018. It is too early to truly tell, but the best guess would be 20 million next year. 

Well, this is no science, so i can't proof you my prediction. It's based in my own mental calculations based on what Switch did this year and the history of other Nintendo handheld and home consoles. That projection is based primarly in the fact that a Nintendo console that starts  strong tend to peak in their 2nd or 3rd year. In this case i choose peaking in 2nd year because like Wii and N64, its bigger franchises launched their main game in a period of 24 months. That means that Nintendo starts with a bang, with everything they have. The problem is, that after that, and every time has happened the same, Nintendo has decided to milk their succesful games until the end of the gen, with some exceptions like Mario Galaxy 2 and Majora's Mask, and the reason why is....well because it cost time to make very good games, and now they cost more time than never. So what happened with N64 and Wii is that after those 2 phenomeal years, the sales started droping because a)Nintendo could'nt afford to sustain the level of launching games, b) Nintendo did not have triple AAA support and c) the competion was receiving all the attention with new hardware coming. That same situation is what I expect Switch will be during 2019 and 2020, and that's why I expect Switch flat or even less than this year. It's my projection and could be wrong, but that's what happens when you try to figure out the future....XD

Edit: And to answer exactly why I don't expect 20M next year...., well because i don't think 20M people will buy a console just for a new Pokemon game, a new Animal Crossing, a 3D Metroid game Smash Bros despite being a evergreen title and games from 2 years before that by then they should start sataruting their own audience if they didn't do it this year. All of this without any new triple AAA support. In fact I expect PS4 to be the best selling console worldwide next year again.

Last edited by colafitte - on 22 November 2018