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Miyamotoo on 20 November 2018
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colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

 

PS4 and Switch dont effect each other, Switch last year did had Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 DX and Mario Odyssey, but this Nov+Dec has Pokemon and Smash Bros, plus plenty of bundles, Switch have much stronger Holiday season than it did last year.

Do you want to bet that Switch will pass 17m in shipped units?

What I meant to say is that last year Switch was catching all the attention in the american public because of those games, and PS4 had nothing of that level, but this year they have GOW, Spiderman, COD BOPS 4, RDR2, ....which are as popular if not more than Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Smash....So now PS4 is not at the same disadvantage in the cosnumer pereception, and in holidays, of course each console affect each other, even between PS4 and Switch. We are talking here with the most casual audience that will choose one or another on popularity.

On the second point. I expressed myself badly. What i meant to say was Switch won't reach 20M SHIPPED as Nintendo want, and if they SELL 17M consoles it will be a success, so in reality i'm expecting around 18-19M shipped (more 18 than 19 to be honest).

If Switch is around 22M at the end of october, I expect Switch selling 10M top until the end of the year, and 3 more million TOP the next 3 months, so a total of 35M total sales by March end. Add 1m more in shipments left and I have around 36M shipped by next fiscal year. Nintendo is expecting around 38M shipped to reach that 20M goal. In my opinion they will fall short by at least 2M.

Actually Switch this Holiday season catching more attention than last year because despite already avalible MK8D, Zelda, Odyssey and Splatoon2, Switch is receiving Pokemon and Smash and plenty intresting bundles. PS4 with Spiderman bundle will have more attention than it did had last year, but that doesn't mean that Switch will have less attention than it did last year.

We will see, they have chance reaching 20m shipped consoles and meat their goal, I dont think they will ship less than 18m in worst case and thats still very good number.

Q3 (October-December) will most likly be around 10m and Q4 around 3.5-4m, and they would need 11m in Q3 and 4m in Q4 to meat their goal of 20m shipped Switch units for FY 2018.