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colafitte on 20 November 2018
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Miyamotoo said:

 

colafitte said:

Everyone expecting Swith to obliterate PS4 this holiday season because what happened in December last year.....,are understimating PS4 again..., like always. Last year was last year, it had fewer stock and their main bundle was the failure Battlefront II was, XB X just launched and it was the first holiday for Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 DX and Mario Odyssey. Now PS4 have RDR 2, COD BOPS 4, Spiderman, GOW, ....and it seems there is a lot more stock.

In my opinion PS4 is bound to have a record November NPD possibly around 2M sales, probably selling aroun 500k more than Switch that month and in December I expect PS4 way up YOY, so yes, Switch will win December because Smash and Pokemon but the difference won't be enough to surpass PS4. I won't be surprised if PS4 ends selling more NOV+DEC combined than Switch...

edit: And by the way, Switch won't reach 20M, not even close....Switch is no Wii. If it ends with 17M it will be a success.

PS4 and Switch dont effect each other, Switch last year did had Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 DX and Mario Odyssey, but this Nov+Dec has Pokemon and Smash Bros, plus plenty of bundles, Switch have much stronger Holiday season than it did last year.

Do you want to bet that Switch will pass 17m in shipped units?

What I meant to say is that last year Switch was catching all the attention in the american public because of those games, and PS4 had nothing of that level, but this year they have GOW, Spiderman, COD BOPS 4, RDR2, ....which are as popular if not more than Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Smash....So now PS4 is not at the same disadvantage in the cosnumer pereception, and in holidays, of course each console affect each other, even between PS4 and Switch. We are talking here with the most casual audience that will choose one or another on popularity.

On the second point. I expressed myself badly. What i meant to say was Switch won't reach 20M SHIPPED as Nintendo want, and if they SELL 17M consoles it will be a success, so in reality i'm expecting around 18-19M shipped (more 18 than 19 to be honest).

If Switch is around 22M at the end of october, I expect Switch selling 10M top until the end of the year, and 3 more million TOP the next 3 months, so a total of 35M total sales by March end. Add 1m more in shipments left and I have around 36M shipped by next fiscal year. Nintendo is expecting around 38M shipped to reach that 20M goal. In my opinion they will fall short by at least 2M.

 

Edit: And the more i think about 10M in the last 2 months, the more I think it will be impossible to reach the goal. Switch sold around 6M last year in the same time period. Pokemon and Smash are huge but Switch won't sell 4M more in the same period, no way....

Last edited by colafitte - on 20 November 2018