California's mail-in ballots have been pouring in, to the detriment of Orange County Republicans. Districts 39 and 45 have been called for the Democrats, leaving the historically conservative county with zero GOP representatives. Nationwide, the Dems have a net gain of 37 seats per NYT, with five races too close to call.
For those of you thinking, "I wonder what that number would've been without gerrymandering," here's an analysis of the 2012 through 2016 elections: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Extreme%20Maps%205.16_0.pdf
Between Massachusetts, Maryland, and Illinois (the three states where Dems had full control of the post-2010 maps), the blue team got an extra 1 to 4 unearned seats.
The similarly-situated Republican states (thirteen total) gave the GOP 11 to 30 extra seats, with Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania way out of whack with their statewide popular votes. Ohio was also terrible, but to a slightly lesser extent.
This cycle, Pennsylvania went from a 13-5 R delegation after 2016 to a 9-9 delegation thanks to court-ordered redistricting, better reflecting the popular vote. In Michigan, where the GOP enjoyed a 9-5 advantage even when Democrats received more votes in 2012, Dems had to beat them 54-46% just to get half the seats. In Ohio, the Democrats got 47% of the two-party vote, but only 25% of the seats (4 D, 12 R). And in North Carolina, the Democrats' 1.5% victory statewide flipped zero seats, resulting in 10 R, 3 D. However, they expanded their lead on the state Supreme Court, 5 D to 2 R, so the current gerrymander probably won't be in place in 2020.
