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AngryLittleAlchemist on 19 October 2018
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Kyuu said:

There's no doubt that the vast majority of us predicted the Switch to beat PS4 in NPD 2018; and this is on the very logical presumption that PS4 would get its long-overdue "permanent" pricecut before August (It didn't). All in all, we moderately overestimated Switch for reasons including Labo's potential and 2017's stock issues which made the demand for the foreseeable future look greater than it turned out to be. More evergreen games, the new model, and a price drop should liven things up, so my expectations for 2019 remain very high.

PS4 was underestimated mainly due to its age. Not many consoles peak on their 5th year, let alone without an official price drop. Nintendo's optimistic projection as opposed to Sony's pessimism also contributed to the poor predictions in general.

I actually predicted PS4 to be up year on year worldwide, but the basis of that was the permanent pricecut and Kingdom Hearts 3 releasing this holiday, I would have never thought PS4 can do so well without the aforementioned.

As for Switch, it's overperforming in parts of Europe and slightly underperforming in USA relative to my expectations. Can't comment on Japan since the handheld community is heavily reliant on a low price range. If Nintendo doesn't drop the price down to $150 at one point, then it wouldn't shock me if it it fails to outsell 3DS or even PSP.

Good comment. Although I would not necessarily say we overestimated demand for Switch. iirc Even with stock issues Switch shipped/sold 16.4 mil in first year versus 14.5 for PS4 first year. Or something like that. The problem is that this year just has the heavy hitters stacked in the last two months. Or at least, in my uneducated opinion.

 

By the way "then it wouldn't shock me if it it fails to outsell 3DS or even PSP" 

 

Didn't PSP sell more than 3ds? Shouldn't it be the opposite way around?