| EricHiggin said: Like I said about firing up the right, unless her testimony is rock solid and highly convincing, and his is poor, the right is going to want Kavanaugh confirmed. If he backs out himself, it's going to piss the right off to no end, and will have them out is much larger numbers than they would otherwise for the mid terms. Trump could purpose a female at that point in time, assuming one that has been vetted and even better if it's one the Dems and left seemed ok with, because it will make it extremely hard for them to go against her and make it tough, without blatantly making themselves look like hypocrites. Trump and the Reps would still point out how the Dems went out of their way to smear the man and roll out the red carpet for the woman, even if that's not exactly how it plays out for her. If her testimony is strong, and his weak, then the right is going to lose faith in the Reps, and if Trump then nominates one of the females that the left doesn't seem to have a problem with, it will make him look super weak like he's totally caving to the Dems and left, and that will not be good for the Reps. If Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed due to her testimony, I would bet Trump puts forward another male candidate. I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, but politically I can see why they would go that route. |
Yet another reason it would be best for Republicans if he withdraws. He seems to have nothing so far except flat out denials, so it wouldn't be too hard for her to top that by having a good testimony. The right will still want him confirmed anyway though, and you're right that him being withdrawn would fire them up. Given the timing, there's no way he'd be able to get someone confirmed by the midterms, female or otherwise. The fastest confirmation in the past 40 years was 50 days, and by Monday when the withdrawal would happen, there'd be less than 40, and he'd need a week or two to think about who to nominate, so he'd have less than a month to confirm, so it would be weighing on the midterms regardless. So in addition to a bad outcome Thursday making the Supreme court and Republicans look bad if they confirm him, the possibility of impeachment in the future if his reputation is so thoroughly stained like that, and better options on the table both male and female, they also have the reason that Republican voters aren't all that enthusiastic right now and a withdrawal and new nomination would provide more enthusiasm to get a better outcome in the midterms. But they won't do it because Trump can't stand the thought of looking like he lost anything even temporarily even if it helped him in the long run, and Republicans are too terrified of him to take action themselves to make it happen, even if the obvious advantages are staring them in the face.
