A relative of mine lives in Japan and he talked about a VR experience controlling a mecha that you really had like full body simulation and felt inside a real one.
Conina said:
potato_hamster said:
P.S. You know how the "whole thing about Sega VR and Virtual Boy is "just silly" because they couldn't do most of what VR headsets can do today?
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Even without taking specs into account like resolution per eye, field of view, processing power, number of colors, Hertz, lag...
Sega VR was just a concept that didn't make it to the market. We don't even know if the consumer version had the key features of a VR headset.
So let's go from this vaporware to the Virtual Boy: it wasn't a VR headset. It was missing a lot of key features of a VR headset:
It may look similar to a head-mounted display, but it is a stationary device with tabletop form factor. Instead of giving you some additional freedom to move your head around (like any HMD), you are even more constrained than looking on a TV or handheld screen. You have to hold your head absolutely still while looking through the goggles… not very comfortable.
You use it like a stationary tourism binocular:
There is no head-tracking at all. While any other VR system gives you 3DoF (3 degrees of freedom) or 6DoF (6 degrees of freedom) when you turn your head, the Virtual Boy only supports a fixed camera position in games (0DoF?).
You can’t even change the perspective with the controller, because the games weren’t using a 3D engine which allowed that. Without z-buffering, the 3D effect were some simple parallax tricks of 2D images… similar to the NES-classics on 3DS instead of the “real” 3DS games with a 3D-engine and proper management of image depth coordinates for a better stereoscopic effect.
It doesn’t try to put the player/user into a virtual world/scenario, you are only the observer from outside watching and controlling the protagonist.
Saying that the Virtual Boy is similar to a modern VR headset (or even the Forte VFX1 of the ‘90s) despite lacking a lot of features which are essential for a VR experience (and we are not talking about resolution) is like saying that PDAs (f.e. Apple Newton) were already smartphones because they had many of the smartphone features (while ignoring the lack of other essential features).
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If you so much wanted you could strap it to your head (not that it would be comfortable =p, but it still was a portable concept).
And the telescope actually have some freedom for you to move it and see different things =]
potato_hamster said:
DonFerrari said:
How is 3M on PS4 (PS4+X1+Switch = about 120M, but since it is just on PS4 it's 80M I'll consider) = 0.001% of the market?
And considering your silly examples of Nintendo Virtua boy 700k, versus PSVR that may cross 5M how can you say it stayed flat? You may deny as much as you want but this is the first generation of real tryout on VR, Nintendo tossed the system and cut it very very very fast.
If you want to look at it this way, screws are part of the car and probably less than 1% of the price of the car, are screws niche?
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Considering the points you brought here you are much more wrong than Facebook analysts, but thank god I didn't pay for your analysis nor invested in your projections of PS4Pro, X1X or Switch.
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You saying no one needs a smartphone is a very different reality than asking people why they buy their phones, they will certainly tell you it is a necessity item, much more than even a car, computer or even TV. Yes it is shocking.
Sure cars of 1M are niche, but are cars of 100k niche? But if people rather pay 100k instead of 10k but not buy console that shows consoles are niche certainly. That is how no sense your point on buying smartphone or tvs but not VR is.
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Nope, we know that the probable path of evolution on VR is small google without any wire, so that is when it will leave enthusiast to enter more mass market appeal. As people said it will be probably another 10-15 years before it really get there. For an enthusiast level, prototype like, product to sell 3M at 299 USD is quite good.
Blackberry bringing back qwerty keypads, good luck on that.
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Nintendo didn't even try to sustain it, just look at what WiiU was, and it wasn't motion control focused. You can enter 10 threads over WiiU failure and all will talk about the use of the gamepad instead of improved wiimote as one the biggest reason for failure.
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Virtua Boy also had batteries besides not using a TV, since we divide the market in consoles and HH I would say it's much more on HH than console market. Or do you want to say that over 20 years ago there were a market that only the 700k Virtua Boy was present? That certainly would be blue ocean. Still as I put the Virtua boy was a shame because it was less than 1M versus previous over 40M sales. That is in no way, shape or form relevant to Oculus or Vive being failures or a shame. The only way you can claim that is getting their projections and seeing if they were met.
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Because VR is more than just the PSVR, and pertains to more than just consoles. There's the HTC Vive (PC), Oculus Rift(PC), Samsung Gear(Mobile), Google Daydream (Mobile).
And need I remind that Nintendo shipped 700K Virtual Boys in just 6-8 months. It's not really fair to just compare the total sales of the Virtual Boy over its tiny lifetime to the total sales of the PSVR which will be sold for years.
And your screws example is another abysmally terrible analogy. I can't even begin to address all the things wrong with it.
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I am much more wrong than Facebook analysts? I sure hope so. Otherwise my skillset is being put to waste and I'm being severely underpaid. But what are my projections on PS4 Pro, X1X and Switch? Please remind me.
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The Phone part of their smart phone can easily be considered a necessity. Can the ability to play angry birds be considered a necessity?
And yes, 100K cars are certainly niche. They represent probably less than 5% of total automotive sales are. Do you know what isn't niche? sub 25K compact cars. Can you figure out why?
And you're still not undertstanding. If someone owns a smartphone they paid $800 for and wants a VR solution but ISNT willing to pay $800 for it, then they're saying that they'd rather be able to do things like play Angry Birds on their phone than play VR. If someone owns a 100K car and doesn't give a shit about video games, then them not buying a VR headset doesn't matter because they don't want one anyways! It only matters if they want one but aren't willing to pay the asking price.
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So the *only reason* VR isn't currently more popular is because the headsets are too big and aren't wireless? Then explain the poor sales of the Oculus Go. It's wireless, cheaper and smaller than the PSVR. Why isn't the Oculus Go selling at a rate higher than PSVR?
Look at you being all pessimistic on Blackberry. "It's a pretty clear the advantage Blackberry brings to smartphones, you just don't like it. But you refuse to accept that you are being very negative." Sound familiar?
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Nintendo didn't even try to sustain it? Was it the motion controlled main pad of the Wii U that made you think that? Or was it the fact that the only other controllers that worked with the Wii U were Wii Remotes that made you think it? Perhaps Nintendo putting motion controls in the 3DS must have made you think they hadn't tried. Or maybe it was offering yet another motion based option on the Switch that let you know they reallly couldn't care less about motion controls.
And why would I look at other threads? I thought the opinions of anonymous people on the internet weren't to be trusted. Now I'm supposed to count on them to let me know why the Wii U was a failure? I can find plenty of analysts that make no such insistence that the Wii U failed because it didn't include upgrades Wii remotes as the primary controller.
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So that's it, it must not have to hook up to a TV and it must be able to use batteries in order to be considered a handheld console. You still might want to reconsider that.
So again, when Facebook acquired Oculus, they projected they were going to ship $2.8 billion of Oculus headsets annually by 2020. It appears they will miss that forecast by at least 80% and that's being conservative. So Oculus is not meeting projections. In order to meet it's projections, Oculus is going to need to sell 8-12 million headsets per year in a little over a year. As it appears right now, they won't have even sold 4 million total by that point. So do you think facebook can turn it around and turn a few hundred thousand units per year in 2018 to 8-12 million by 2020, or are you willing to call that one a "missed projection" right now?
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Ok so you want to consider all industry. Than again almost any game released is niche since besides some very few 10M+ sales, most are sold to less than 1% of the market.
The fact that Nintendo pulled the plug in few months makes no difference, they shipped 700k and that is it, we can count 8 months or 20 years of sale it won't make Virtua Boy cross 1M. You were the one who brought it the table so no complaining now.
I believe you made the 0.0001% based on revenue because if not you have about let's say 30M compatible PCs for VR and 80M PS4, so that makes 110M base with like 5M devices, still more than 0.0001% (if not please show what you meant with it). So if it's based on value then screws are a very very very low representation on the value of cars sold, so niche using your terms. Unless you want to change again the meaning of niche.
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Your predictions about the 3 were already brought in this thread and you tried to dodge them. But since you accept their analysis is better than yours, until any analyst or representative of Oculus, Vive or Sony comes out saying their product was a failure or they stop supporting this or future versions of the product then you already accept defeat on it growing until being a representative chunck of market.
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Necessity is a personal thing. Considering people are paying 80x over the price of a simple call phone and that the usage of cellphone for internet, texting and other voip like services is higher than direct call I would say they are all more necessary than the make call part. My cell phone can't receive or make calls for over 1 year and it didn't really bothered me much. So yes, people are paying 800 USD thinking of it as a need more than a hobby.
Please explain to us how I'm not understanding your definition of niche that you change for each argument.
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On the Oculus GO you also forgot price and probably marketing. Never seem anything about it.
And on Blackberry my pessimism comes from it being a go backward instead of evolution. People used and liked their normal phones, got interested in qwerty and then touchscreen smartphone. Very very hardly they would go backward on it. If you said anything about implanted chip or any other technology that isn't a go back to the past I could say perhaps it will be successful. Your false parallel with the negativity is totally as said, false.
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Nintendo didn't sustain it because they moved the focus on WiiU to the gamepad instead of the motion and that is what killed it. But as you put there were still motion control in WiiU, 3DS and PS4 so hardly saying it died out right? But considering none of these made motion the main focus on these consoles you can't say they really tried sustain it.
The professional analysts from Nintendo put the reason for the failure of WiiU on what them? Since you want to bring they to this analysis instead of consensus on the community.
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I have no problem accepting they missed their projection (Sony didn't though), but still I'm willing to accept their projection had a better reasoning than your takes on why VR is going to fail. I would love to see your projections on PSVR one year before release. Or the whole VR market before this gen. So we can validate your credentials on this comfortable hindsight saying you are right and if PSVR keep consistent sales and have a PSVR2 launch you just vanish and forget.
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If at the time having batteries to be used as portable, not needing TV (being self contained) wasn't put on the Handheld market, at what market were it put over 20 years ago?
potato_hamster said:
Conina said:
Even without taking specs into account like resolution per eye, field of view, processing power, number of colors, Hertz, lag...
Sega VR was just a concept that didn't make it to the market. We don't even know if the consumer version had the key features of a VR headset.
So let's go from this vaporware to the Virtual Boy: it wasn't a VR headset. It was missing a lot of key features of a VR headset:
It may look similar to a head-mounted display, but it is a stationary device with tabletop form factor. Instead of giving you some additional freedom to move your head around (like any HMD), you are even more constrained than looking on a TV or handheld screen. You have to hold your head absolutely still while looking through the goggles… not very comfortable.
You use it like a stationary tourism binocular:
There is no head-tracking at all. While any other VR system gives you 3DoF (3 degrees of freedom) or 6DoF (6 degrees of freedom) when you turn your head, the Virtual Boy only supports a fixed camera position in games (0DoF?).
You can’t even change the perspective with the controller, because the games weren’t using a 3D engine which allowed that. Without z-buffering, the 3D effect were some simple parallax tricks of 2D images… similar to the NES-classics on 3DS instead of the “real” 3DS games with a 3D-engine and proper management of image depth coordinates for a better stereoscopic effect.
It doesn’t try to put the player/user into a virtual world/scenario, you are only the observer from outside watching and controlling the protagonist.
Saying that the Virtual Boy is similar to a modern VR headset (or even the Forte VFX1 of the ‘90s) despite lacking a lot of features which are essential for a VR experience (and we are not talking about resolution) is like saying that PDAs (f.e. Apple Newton) were already smartphones because they had many of the smartphone features (while ignoring the lack of other essential features).
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Why are you acting like I've never used a Virtual Boy? I Know what it is. I know what it does.
Where did I say it was similar to a modern VR headset? I never. Where did I say it never lacked a lot of features modern headsets have? I never.
All I said was that it was a poor VR headset. And it was, because it was lacking a lot of features that it would need to make it a decent VR experience. That doesn't mean it wasn't VR.
As for smartphones:
"In March 1996, Hewlett-Packard released the OmniGo 700LX, a modified HP 200LX palmtop PC with a Nokia 2110 mobile phone piggybacked onto it and ROM-based software to support it. It had a 640×200 resolution CGA compatible four-shade gray-scale LCD screen and could be used to place and receive calls, and to create and receive text messages, emails and faxes. It was also 100% DOS 5.0 compatible, allowing it to run thousands of existing software titles, including early versions of Windows."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone
Sounds to me like taking a PDA and mashing a Nokia phone on the back of it does actually make a smartphone. Sure the Omnigo doesn't have much in common with the first iPhone, but they're both still considered smartphones. Imagine that.
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You should mean why Virtua Boy isn't a VR, not even a poor one. It is more like a poor 3D attempt.
More proof that it took much more than 10 years since a decent smartphone was done to it being market ready.
