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Asriel on 15 August 2018
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I think Skull Kid is quite likely for a number of reasons. We've yet to see him as an assist trophy, but Ghirahim and Midna have both been confirmed as assists, while the Moon has been added as a new assist. With the Termina stage and Young Link back in the game, Skull Kid would also fit the 'rivals' theme of the game, and could be a rival for Young Link - who wasn't in the rivals video (the art before the K Rool reveal showed Ganon, Link and Zelda facing off). I think there's plenty of hints that Skull Kid has been promoted from assist trophy to fighter.

I don't really buy your reasoning about console representatives; especially not in Ridley's case. Ridley was simply a much-requested character going back to before Brawl's release. I think it's more likely we'll see requested characters (Simon Belmont, Ridley, K Rool) and assists being promoted (Little Mac was promoted from assist to fighter for Smash 4, Dark Samus has been promoted this time to echo fighter). On that note, one other character I'm sure we're getting is Shadow as an echo for Sonic - Shadow is another of the pre-existing assist trophies not among the 40 confirmed for Ultimate so far. Skull Kid and Shadow already have stage representation in the game, too, assuming the 103 listed stages are the final tally for the game.

The other potential new character would be Isaac, from Golden Sun, who was an assist in Brawl but was dropped from 4. I don't think this is as likely - though interestingly, Sakurai tweeted a Rathalos screenshot that was startingly close to the Golden Sun battle-screen, as has been picked up on by fans around the net. It would be a surprising inclusion, given his assist was dropped from 4 and Golden Sun is effectively a dead franchise at this point, but Isaac is another character fans have been requesting.

In terms of the number of extra characters we'll see, I don't know if we'll get too many more. Maybe a few more echoes - I'd like to see Black Bull as an echo for Captain Falcon and Medusa as an echo for Palutena. It'll be interesting to see what kind of DLC happens.