DonFerrari on 09 August 2018
Shadow1980 said:
Last year the PS4 sold 7M units between Jan. 2 and June 11, a period of 160 days. That's an average of 43,750 units per day.
This year the PS4 sold 7.6M units between Jan. 1 and July 22, a period of 202 days. That's an average of 37,623 units per day.
It's hard to say with absolute certainty without any further context, but on a global basis the PS4 may be passing its peak. It's up by only about 6-7% YoY in the U.S. for the Jan.-June period (and all of that is thanks to the God of War boost), it's barely up YoY in Japan in YTD sales (the big Monster Hunter boost helped keep 2018 ahead of 2017 for a while, but now it's on the verge of falling behind). If VGC isn't too far off the mark, then the PS4 is down YoY in Europe for the year so far.
I think this year will probably end slightly down from 2017 (with LTD sales at around the 90M mark by New Year's Day), and we'll see more pronounced drops in 2019. That being the case, we can probably expect an official PS5 announcement some time in 2020, with a release date probably in November of that year. That could be pushed to 2021 if PS4 Pro price cuts help diminish the rate of decline in sales and produce a slower post-peak drop.
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Even Sony talks about it, FY18 forecast is lower than FY17
