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melbye on 16 July 2018
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pinkie_pie said:
I played the demo but im buying the game unless it's $20. 1m demo downloaded means nothing. Im predicting 1m max

 

Keybladewielder said:

I think it will do similar to Bravely Default, 1 to 1.5 million.

 

Kyuu said:
Hard to predict this one but I'll go with 1-1.5 million.

It won't match Bravely Default's sales in Japan due to declining RPG popularity as well as the pop-up book art style. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who finds this weird and immersion breaking.

 

Slownenberg said:
Depends on the price. Since its a retro style (granted its 2d retro on 3d world) it feels like an indie game that should be like $30. I'm totally down to buy this game for that kind of price. But no way I'm buying it anywhere close to $60. Does it have a price yet? If it's near $60 I say definitely under 1 million. If it's $30 I could see lifetime 1.5 - 2 million.

 

Megiddo said:
I think sales will initially be lower than a lot of people think, but it should leg it out past 1 million pretty easily in the end.

 

fedfed said:
1.1 it will get there slowly/eventually. don't think there is a big hype around it. judging by the pre-sales!

 

CGcarmineCG said:

1.5 million copies if it turns out to be very good (and I hope it will be), otherwise 1 million copies.

 

konnichiwa said:
I felt Xenoblade had more hype and it's retail wise struggling to pass the million.

Secondly pre orders in Japan aren't that hot best case it reaches 100K (except if the next days it surprisingly climbs up in pre order numbers)

 

melbye said:
Over a million, not sure if it can catch Xenoblade 2

 

HylianSwordsman said:
Given that the Bravely series did 1.41 and 0.56 million for Default and Second respectively, I think Octopath will do over a million, but not by much. 3DS had a much larger and engaged userbase at the time than Switch does now, and still sold that little. Octopath will have the advantage of being the first of its kind on the system, and in the middle of a relative drought, though not a terribly bad one by Wii U standards. If not for those advantages, it wouldn't even do a million. I say this as someone who loved the Bravely series and wants to buy Octopath day one and see it succeed. I'm hopeful it will gain enough momentum to get a little past Default and maybe even over 2 million, but I don't expect it.

 

Metroid33slayer said:
Lucky if it does a million IMO. These types of games always struggle to sell.

 

friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

Still expect your predictions to be correct?

yes