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SvennoJ on 05 July 2018
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EricHiggin said:
SvennoJ said:
It all depends on whether MS has exclusive games ready to back up an early release.

If they keep going with cross gen releases, then what's the incentive to buy the new box over an X1X.
If they don't have the flashy exclusives, then what's the incentive to switch over from ps4 pro as multi platform titles will support both gens for the first 2 or 3 years.

Having the most powerful console now makes it a bit more difficult to come out early and wow people with the difference while keeping the price reasonable. Even when both come out at the same time (with roughly same specs), the upgrade from ps4 pro will feel more substantial.

MS can't afford to let Sony go first though.

If MS were to build a next gen 60fps console, and launch at the same time as PS5, but make sure the price was the same if not less, they should do alright. Casuals should have no problem buying a console like that. As for the XB1X, they could very well just scrap it altogether once the new model arrives late 2019 or 2020 and drop the "One" branding. This would justify the new console if it wasn't leaps and bounds better than the XB1X, to cater to XB1(S) owners. Having another XB ready for holiday 2021, could be the beast needed to get all of the XB1X owners to upgrade if the initial console wasn't strong enough for them to see the need. The casuals will buy for a cheaper price and the ability to play the newest third party games at their best. XB1X owners will demand strong first party, which should be in full swing by 2021.

The casuals don't buy at launch though or the first year, nor do they care about a 60 fps console. Launch year is to draw the hardcore in, and perhaps the promise of 60fps is enough to get them to upgrade again. The danger is that the hardcore might give the ps5 a try first and wait for the beast model of the new xbox, then get drawn into the ps eco system instead. That's basically giving Sony a year head start. MS needs something to show a generational leap and a 60fps more 4K version of the X1X won't do that.

The mid gen refreshes plus diminishing returns are undermining the justification for a new gen. 2020 might simply be too soon.