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It all depends on whether MS has exclusive games ready to back up an early release.

If they keep going with cross gen releases, then what's the incentive to buy the new box over an X1X.
If they don't have the flashy exclusives, then what's the incentive to switch over from ps4 pro as multi platform titles will support both gens for the first 2 or 3 years.

Having the most powerful console now makes it a bit more difficult to come out early and wow people with the difference while keeping the price reasonable. Even when both come out at the same time (with roughly same specs), the upgrade from ps4 pro will feel more substantial.

MS can't afford to let Sony go first though.