Football Thread 21/22

[haxxiy]

RolStoppable said:

Mbolibombo said:

I dont think they can afford a loss at all really. If they lose against Sweden by any means they are behind them in the standings. And I think it's highly likely Germany will win against South Korea with at least two goals.. but if they arent.. then it gets messy.

In a three-way-tie, only the games between the tied teams count, so the results against South Korea are irrelevant. Let's suppose Sweden beats Mexico 1-0 and Germany beats South Korea, then the first tie-breaker will look like this:

T1. Germany - 3 points, 2-2 goals
T1. Sweden - 3, 2-2
3. Mexico - 3, 1-1

Germany wins the next tie-breaker because they beat Sweden; Mexico is eliminated. Now if Sweden won 2-1 against Mexico, it would look like this:

1. Sweden - 3 points, 3-3 goals
T2. Germany - 3, 2-2
T2. Mexico - 3, 2-2

Mexico would win the following tie-breaker in this scenario, so on second thought even a 1-2 loss would actually be fine for them. A Swedish win of 3-2, 4-3 etc. would put Sweden in first and Mexico in second on the first step of the tie-breaking procedure already. A Swedish win by two or more goals would put Sweden in first and Germany in second.

At least that's how it should work, unless FIFA uses a different system than UEFA in their tournaments. So no matter what, it's of no concern how high Germany wins against South Korea. And no matter what, Sweden will qualify for the round of 16 with a win on their own.

How high Germany wins against South Korea does matter, since total goals scored in all group matches it's one of the tie-breaking criteria, before checking whether Germany or Mexico won on their match, in the case they are tied.

Thus:

Ger 1 x 0 Kor / Swe 2 x 1 Mex: then Sweden is 1st, Mexico 2nd

But...

Ger 2 x 0 Kor or Ger 2 x 1 Kor / Swe 2 x 1 Mex: then Germany is 1st, Mexico 2nd

And as long as Germany scores more goals than Mexico on a victory over Korea with a margin of a single goal, it advances with any Sweden win by the same one goal margin.

But if Germany wins by two goals difference, then it is qualified no matter the result of Sweden x Mexico, since any result on this match, be it by a small or large margin, would disqualify either Sweden or Mexico while keeping Germany, for goal difference is the foremost criterium besides points.

This is confusing as hell... but I think this is correct.