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HomokHarcos on 21 June 2018
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RolStoppable said:
Ka-pi96 said:

With there being 2 European teams in most groups though luck does go further for them. When you've got 2 chances then you'd expect at least 1 to get through in most groups and that's the 50% done.

If you were to have say 2 African teams per group instead then I fully expect a higher % of African teams would get through to the knockout stage, not as high a % as European teams since there is still a clear quality gap with the majority of the favourites being European, but still a higher % than they'll manage as it stands.

I have to disagree. European teams go through more often because they are better than teams from other continents. That's the same reason why South American teams reach the round of 16 more often than other continents despite a similar number of teams in the tournament.

If there were two African teams per group, you'd have a much lower average quality for African teams. As it is now (32 teams at the World Cup, 5 from Africa), you'd probably find it a reasonable expectation that 2/5 African teams, so 40%, make it to the round of 16. If there were 16 African teams, you'd limit the number of spots for Europe and South America, but Europe's and South America's top teams would still be there, so 6/16 African teams going through would be a reasonable expectation because almost every group would have 1 or 2 teams from Europe and South America that qualify (plus Mexico); after all, if you have 16 African teams, you are bound to have some weak ones at the tournament and you know that Africa's top teams already have trouble to prevail. 6/16 is 38.5%.

Get it? The percentage metric is a fair one. The more teams a confederation has, the more teams will have to reach the round of 16 to get the percentage to a satisfactory level. The UEFA club and country rankings work similarly; countries who have only a couple of teams in Champions League and Europa League can work their way up in the rankings quickly, because they only need one or two successful clubs whereas the big nations need a few clubs do well every year to maintain their position. Having more Austrian clubs play in Europe would be detrimental for Austria's ranking, rather than beneficial like your argument implies. That's why the low number of African teams at the World Cup isn't a disadvantage. After all, the low number has never been a disadvantage for South America.

My problem is that teams from outside of Europe and South America are held to a higher standard. For example when the USA made it out of their group in 2002, 2010 and 2014 you still had many people arguing that they didn't deserve to be there and to get rid off CONCACAF spots. Also when Iceland play for a draw against Argentina and get it people will applaud but when Iran was playing for a draw against Spain (before they conceded) people were saying they shouldn't be there.

Last edited by HomokHarcos - on 21 June 2018