isn't the 20 million for the fiscal year, so it barely began and the games are coming soon. Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash are 3 huge games and from 3 different potential consumers. Also, there is no way Jan - March 2019 will be as bad as the one in 2018.
Mario Tennis/Octopath/etc. will keep the baseline steady or even raise it in June/July, but then it drops again in August/September. Mario Party and the beginning of the holiday season will pick it back up in October, but I'm betting Switch sales for the fiscal year at that point will be around 5-6m, so it'll need to sell 13-14m during the last 5 months (assuming 1m on store shelves). Difficult but possible.