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xMetroid said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
Well at the start of the year Switch would sell +200k weekly, but lately it's been doing around 170k a week. Still good of course, especially when it's about to get a large amount of games in June/July. However at this pace, Switch is going to need the last 5 months of the fiscal year to be killer for that 20m shipped target.

isn't the 20 million for the fiscal year, so it barely began and the games are coming soon. Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash are 3 huge games and from 3 different potential consumers. Also, there is no way Jan - March 2019 will be as bad as the one in 2018.

I never said it would be as bad, infact I even pointed out how it was selling 200k/weekly through Jan-April this year which isn't bad at all. Mario Party hasn't been huge since the Wii/DS days, most certainly because it needed the unique audiences those systems attracted to reach such heights. Won't mind being wrong, but right now how I see it is that the Switch is gonna stay at this pace until November.

Mario Tennis/Octopath/etc. will keep the baseline steady or even raise it in June/July, but then it drops again in August/September. Mario Party and the beginning of the holiday season will pick it back up in October, but I'm betting Switch sales for the fiscal year at that point will be around 5-6m, so it'll need to sell 13-14m during the last 5 months (assuming 1m on store shelves). Difficult but possible.