First, let me say that it's not that big of a problem. CoD, FIFA, Madden, and so-on, are what Microsoft's demographic is really interested in. They cater to that audience and they'll be fine. Had they not screwed up the XO launch, they'd be in fantastic shape right now, even while clearly losing the exclusive war.
That being said, blockbuster exclusives are nothing to sneeze at. Particularly blockbuster multiplayer exclusives, which is what Microsoft wants.
Gears, I think, will never regain what it once had under Epic. The games might be good but I don't see it being the same kind of system-seller. They just don't have the same kind of epic (no pun intended) vibe. Halo might have a chance--I'll wait and see what happens with the next game but Halo 5 wasn't exactly a classic.
As for the rest, I mostly agree that it's nothing more than a start.
Undead Labs had already signed an exclusive deal and were supposedly working on multiple games. I think something zombie-ish in the GaaS category has been mentioned. However, the quality of SoD2 didn't seem like much of a jump, so I don't think they'll suddenly start popping out AAA blockbusters.
The two wildcards are the new studio and Ninja Theory. Ninja Theory has the talent to make something really good, though I don't know if they've ever developed a genuine hit. If they keep making games on the same level as before then they'll be a nice addition but nothing that move consoles. They seem to have a ton of potential, though, so we'll see.
If the new studio really is centered around a Tomb Raider/Uncharted adventure game then they have a lot to prove. That's going to be a tough route for a new IP.
I think it's a nice foundation. I'm just not sure that there are many difference makers on tap.
