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LethalP on 06 June 2018
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Dulfite said:
aLkaLiNE said:

 

I don't know 🤔

 

PS4 at 60 million.

Wii at 100 million. You predict Ps4 will sell 20 million less. By your prediction Sony needs to sell less than approximately 20 million units end of life for it to be correct. It will do 80% of that 20 million (16 million) within a year from now. That leaves 4 million units to sell between June 2018 to whenever production of Ps4 ends. So I think you're going to be wrong d:

 

I guess @ the OP: Sometime end of 2019/early 2020. PS5 comes out holiday 19', we will have sub $200 PS4 prices. Maybe hitting something like $125-$150 for Black Friday of 19'.

Just to be clear, I think Sony is going to have a small E3 this year and will have less and less games going forward because they want the PS5 to hit the ground running when it launches, just like the ps4. Could the ps4 go on to sell more than the Wii? Absolutely! But only if they hold off the ps5 (and software production moving to the ps5) for a couple more years. If the PS5 launches anytime in 2019 or the first half of 2020, I think the ps4 won't sell more than the Wii. My 20 million short prediction, however, may be wrong as you stated.

Also, nice necrobump ;)

Do you even take into account any real world information when making these predictions? The PS5 could release November 2019 and the PS4 will have outsold the Wii in that same year. 92 million is like a safe estimate for what PS4 will sell by January 2019. That assumes the PS4 sold through 18.4 million in 2018. At that point it has less than 10 million to go to beat the Wii. Since PS3 sold 8 million in 2013, PS4 should be able to sell 10 million in 2019 (if it was the PS5 launch, which is unlikely anyway). 

Then what if PS5 launches November 2020 (which seems the most likely scenario)? That would give the PS4 another full year without next gen hype, meaning that 10 million it would have sold in 2019 PS5 launch year would instead be 14-15 million. Which would put PS4's sales at 106-107 million by the start of 2020. That's not taking into account the rest of 2020 PS4 has before the PS5 launch. Could be an 8-10 million selling year again, 115-117 million total.

Then.. what if Sony drop the PS4 price to $149 after PS5 launches? Or lower? It will go on to sell another 10 million or more before it's discontinued. PS4 has a much higher chance of selling post PS5 than what PS3 did. The reason being that it's actually selling to developing regions. It's already the 3rd best selling console of all time outside US/EU/JP with 14.1 million units sold. It's behind PSP (15.5 million) and PS2 (25.5 million). You haven't taken any of this into account, and thus your predictions have been crazy off.

The PS4 will outsell the Wii. It will outsell the PS1, the Gameboy and probably everything other than the DS and PS2. That's my prediction.