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Year Sell-through Shipments Difference
2013 4.2 million 4.5 million +300k
2014 14.3 million (18.5m) 15.4 million (19.9m) +1.1 million (+1.4m)
2015 17.4 million (35.9m) 17.8 million (37.7m) +400k (+1.8m)
2016 17.5 million (53.4m) 19.4 million (57.1m) +1.9 million (+3.7m)
2017 20.2 million (73.6m) 19.4 million (76.5m)

-800k (+2.9m)


I just wanted to take a look at the difference between sales & shipments to get a better guess at what PS4 will sell this year.

Having an extra 1.5-2 million shipped vs sold is a pretty good amount without having shortages or being overshipped.

We can see that 2013 had pretty extreme shortages while 2014/2015 were at the right spot and 2016 is when they overshipped PS4 by quite a bit.

This led to 2017 actually selling more than they shipped but we still see there was quite a large surplus.

Looking forward, Sony expects to ship 16 million this fiscal year (calender year shipments should be right around that mark as well).

If Sony wants to get the shipped/sold difference back into the 1.5-2 million range than we can probably expect sales to be more like 17-17.5 million.

Based on all this im expecting PS4 to basically sell what they sold in 2015/2016.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.