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Wirh only the titles we have right now, assuming there would be nothing else big coming this year (which is impossible), i dont see the Switch doing under 20 million. We are getting new genre of games and games with huge communities like Smash and pkmn. Also, this will be the first fall/holiday season without stock issues and we will most likely see some packs and deals for Black friday and christmas. Didn't they shipped 17.79 in 13 months in a launch period. No way it wont beat that number by a fair margin on a second year with those 2 games.

But we will also get other stuff announced at E3 so yea. Switch stayed at around 200k/week during the first half which had no marketing and no big games. I think people just compare it too much to the PS4 which is peaking right now or last year and had several major releases during first half.