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Pemalite said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

I didn't say that my prediction was evidence of anything. I gave arguments as evidence.

Some of your arguments were predictions.
Either way. Arguments are also not evidence.


Cerebralbore101 said:

It's not baseless it's an inductive argument that assumes that the rate of tech improvement will stay the same as it did for the last 14 years.

Except the evidence we have currently says that the rate of tech improvement is slowing, which is why Intel elongated it's last few nodes, AMD has essentially been rebadging it's GPU's for years, Intel's CPU improvements have been extremely minor.... Have you not been keeping up with the happenings in the semiconductor world?

Cerebralbore101 said:

The opposite statement is to assume that we will suddenly get a quantum leap in technology over the next two years.

False.
 

Cerebralbore101 said:

I'll look into Ray Tracing in a few days.

Please do.

Evidence is that which justifies belief. Either take my arguments as evidence, or take the premises of my arguments as evidence. Either way evidence was given.

The rate of tech improvement slowing, only helps my argument. Whether it stays the same (as I originally assumed) or slows down, the outcome is the same. The goal, of next gen graphics, will not be reached in time, for it to affect next gen consoles. 

I looked into Ray Tracing, but I'm confused. The whole thing looks like it takes a crapton of processing power. It also looks like it only really makes highly reflective things like glass, marble, chrome, look realistic. I seriously doubt the PS5 will be able to run current gen games at 4K 60 FPS, and Ray Tracing looks like it takes even more horsepower than that. Am I wrong? Is Ray Tracing easier to do than 4K with 60 FPS? I'll try to find a demo of a modern PC running a scene with Ray Tracing in the next few days. IMO if a $2,500 PC can't do it, at a framerate of 30 FPS, then PS5 definitely won't be able to do it either.