John Kodera: “PS4 Is Entering The Final Stages Of It’s Life-Cycle.”

[DonFerrari]

Shadow1980 said:

thismeintiel said:

Except Sony always releases their systems when their predecessor is still hot. It's how you maintain momentum. PS3 to PS4 is the only exception, mainly because they stretched out the gen to recoup early losses. The PS4 did not have that problem. 

Yes and no. All of their systems were past peak sales upon being replaced:

 

Granted, the PS2 was still doing decently when the PS3 came out, but it was replaced four years after its peak. The PS1 was replaced sooner after its peak, and it was still doing well when the PS2 was announced, but then again it was starting to slow down. Sony might have been able to hold off on the PS2 for another year. Meanwhile, the PS3 was starting to decline fast after 2011. It (and the 360 as well) had a belated peak compared to historical norms, but that also meant that by time it passed its peak, it had already reached the majority of its potential audience, and Sony was rapidly running out of new customers. As for the PS4, it's still doing well and arguably hasn't quite passed its peak yet. Unless Sony refuses to issue another permanent price cut, the PS4 might not start to enter a clear terminal decline until next year.

Also, it's worth pointing out that the PS1 & PS2 existed at a time when the tech was progressing at a proportionally much higher rate. I believe last generation was as long as it was on purpose because of the rate of technological slowdown. Imagine if the PS4 had come out in 2011 instead of 2013. It'd be either much weaker, or much more expensive. I think it behooves Sony (and MS) to wait a bit longer and not rush the transition to next-gen. The upgrade needs to be worth it. While the PS4 might be officially entering the last phase of its life, I don't think that means that the PS5 is imminent. I simply don't see it coming out any earlier than 2020.

Not only a question of technology being slower, but reducing benefits that also makes the need for the jump to be bigger to be noticeable and worthy.